[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel Prices Surged Significantly on December 22, Party Group Expanded Meeting of the Ministry of Commerce Held in Beijing

SMM Nickel December 22 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) On December 20, an enlarged meeting of the Party Leadership Group of the Ministry of Commerce was held in Beijing. The meeting emphasized that 2026 is the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, and there is significant responsibility in doing a good job in commerce work.

(2) US Fed Governor Milan reiterated that interest rates should be cut to address risks in the labor market; New York Fed President Williams believed the low CPI data was due to technical factors and was not in a hurry to adjust monetary policy; Cleveland Fed President Hammack stated that she is more concerned about stubbornly high inflation, pausing rate cuts is the baseline forecast, and she prefers to keep rates stable until next spring.

Spot Market:

On December 22, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 118,200-125,300 yuan/mt, with an average price of 121,750 yuan/mt, up 1,650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,600-6,800 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 6,700 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -50-400 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2601) rose sharply after opening in the morning session and maintained an upward fluctuating trend during the session. By the midday close, it was quoted at 119,220 yuan/mt, up 2.79%.

Expectations of supply contraction driven by Indonesian policies are the dominant market logic currently, stimulating bullish sentiment and leading to a continued significant rebound in nickel prices. In the short term, the price center of nickel is expected to maintain an upward fluctuating pattern driven by market sentiment, but the rebound height is still limited, constrained by high inventory and weak demand fundamentals.